UK house price growth over the past 12 months has been the highest since before the Global Financial Crisis.
There will continue to be strong price growth across all major markets, albeit at a slower rate of growth to reflect the removal of the stamp duty holiday, removal of furlough and some current uncertainty and disruption around fuel, deliveries, and inflation.
Price growth will be driven by mortgaged mid-life stage households who have seen strong wage growth, have built up some equity over the past decade and can access 5-year fixed mortgages at record low rates.
Cities will bounce back more strongly in terms of price growth and rental growth than rural areas as there continues to be a renewed desire to return to more ‘normal life’. This bounce will particularly be
felt in 2022 and 2023.
Price and rental growth is expected to cool in 2024 after an extended period of strong growth. This cooling will also reflect uncertainty heading towards the UK General Election, which is currently scheduled for May 2024. However, the election could be held earlier, which in turn would signal a quicker cooling of price growth, if the UK Government’s proposals to repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act come to fruition.
| City / Region | Projected Change 2022 – 2026 |
| London | 23.5% |
| Birmingham | 24.5% |
| Manchester | 23.5% |
| Liverpool | 19.5% |
| Edinburgh | 24.0% |
